You are currently not logged into ManagerLeague
If you wish to log in, click here.
If you wish to sign up and join us, click here.
Wonderstar AnalyticsSee all entries in this blog
Champions League S113: Group Stage Roundup (15/04/2014 22:48)

Wonderstar Analytics Champion's League Group Stage Roundup

 

A shorter version of this was originally posted on the forums, but I thought I'd place a more permanent and detailed article here so you can admonish me when the teams I tip go out in the first round :-) Others generally provide good coverage of the Champions's League and SuperCup in the forums, so this is mainly an attempt to put some of the teams in context and give a rough guide to how strong they all are. It's quite a quick analysis which shouldn't be taken too seriously, but hopefully it may be a slightly better guide than just glancing at the Q value next to each team.

I've rated each team in 3 areas, putting each rating on a 1-100 scale. I've then combined the three scores to give an overall Rating, also on a 1-100 scale:

1. Team Quality at the start of the competition (a crude but up-to-date measure of strength).
2. Last season's strength (a more sophisticated measure taking into account teamstats and the attributes of the players who actually lined up in league matches, but which does not include squad changes since last season).
3. The Manager Rating 
from last year (a reflection of how much better the manager got his/her team playing than you'd expect just from the stats).

So on this hopefully-better-than-Q-alone-but-still-pretty-arbitrary-if-we're-being-honest scale, which teams look most likely to progress to the knockouts? Original pre-tournament thoughts in green, updates as the tournament progresses in Yellow.


 

GROUPS 1 AND 2

 

Group 1With the highest strength and team quality in the competition, an above average manager rating, and four trophies in the past two seasons, it's very hard to see Vagabonds as anything less than a serious contender for the trophy. A kind draw should make progression a relative breeze - Group 1 is perhaps the least competitive of all, with two clear favourites to progress. Assuming Vagabonds go through, Hotspurs FC (formerly Cursed FC, formerly Hotspurs FC) look best placed to join them. Beyond that, the group looks evenly balanced, though Toros Kaplanlari, Tanus and JustinLaFieber all posted elite Manager Ratings last season and may outperform their modest strength. Round 1 made it clear that Toros Kaplanlari do not intend to take the competition seriously this season, while Vagabonds and Hotspurs/Cursed FC both ran out easy winners. In Round 2 Werder Bremen Walle and River City established themselves as the most likely rivals for the top two, but Werder Bremen's defeat to JustinLaFieber in Round 3 leaves River City v Hotspurs FC in Round 5 looking potentially decisive, with both teams possibly entering that clash on 9pts. Vagabonds beat Hotspurs in Round 4, likely securing the group - Werder Bremen Walle and River City aren't far behind, but have tougher remaining schedules than Hotspurs FC do. Hotspurs FC all but secured second place in Round 5 with a confident victory over River City; a late comeback to beat Werder Bremen Walle 4-3 in Round 6 confirmed their qualification. QUALIFIED: VAGABONDS, HOTSPURS FC.


Group 2If Vagabonds and Cursed FC have a relatively straightforward path to the knockout stages, they should prepare for a stiff challenge there - Group 2 is possibly the toughest of all, with a host of elite managers and three very strong sides battling for just two places in the next round. Adding to the competitiveness is the incentive of avoiding Vagabonds by finishing top. While Blest and VN WinMySelf have the strongest squads on paper, Phoenix Baia Mare were very strong last season and have an excellent manager. Those expecting a three-horse race would do well to be wary of FC Dzhebel and WKS Slask, who will be strong opponents and could take advantage if the top three slip up. Sure enough, WKS Slask pulled off a mild upset by grinding out a victory over VN WinMySelf, while FC Dzhebel and Blest took advantage to move top. Phoenix Baia Mare put some pressure on themselves with a frustrating draw against The Red Warriors. The group opened up even further after Round 2, with all four matches decided by just a single goal. The three lowest quality teams were all complicating the picture with strong performances, with Red Warriors and JK United pushing Dzhebel and VN WinMySelf close, and FC Vegan upsetting Blest. Phoenix Baia Mare got a crucial win against WKS Slask, but in Round 3 the Poles bounced back with victory over FC Dzhebel. Blest beat VN WinMySelf in the crucial clash, which seemed to put the Vietnamese runners-up out of contention - but in Round 4 they bounced back with a thrilling victory over Phoenix Baia Mare. With Blest, Dzhebel and Slask all winning, the top five are separated by just 3 points. Blest and WKS Slask both won in Round 5 to move clear at the top; VN WinMySelf beat Dzhebel to get within 3 points of the leaders. With Blest defeating Slask in Round 6, they should be safely through thanks to an excellent goal difference - although it will take a point against FC Dzhebel to be sure. A 1-0 win over FC Vegan was enough to haul VN WinMyself into second place on goal difference ahead of WKS Slask - qualification coming down to an epic goal difference duel between those two sides in the final round of matches. In the end, WKS Slask dramatically turned around their two-goal deficit with a 7-0 victory over JK United, with VN WinMySelf's 4-1 win over Red Warriors proving not quite enough. Congratulations to the Poles for their qualification, and to Blest who secured top spot with a win over FC Dzhebel. And a tip of the hat to both JK United and The Red Warriors for their sporting behaviour: With nothing technically to play for themselves, both put out their strongest lineup in the final games, ensuring a fair contest for second place. :-) QUALIFIED: BLEST, WKS SLASK.

 

Quarter Final Picks:

After a dramatic qualification, WKS Slask face a tough challenge, to put it mildly. After 23 league and CL matches, Vagabonds have 22 victories and a frankly terrifying +99 goal difference. Some crumbs of comfort: +42 of that goal difference came courtesy of three matches against sides who weren't trying, and their only league defeat came at the Dog House just a couple of rounds ago. Vagabonds can be beaten, but it would be a major shock if WKS Slask were the team to manage it.

Blest vs Hotspurs FC is much harder to predict. While Blest qualified impressively from a tough group, Hotspurs FC - dark horses for the competition according to no less an authority than Hotspurs manager SpudGreg - duly beat the weaker teams in their group, and lost to the very strong one, making it hard to judge their strength against sides of the calibre of Blest. League form is patchy for both sides - Hotspurs FC lie 8th in their league as of R16 (but that underrates them somewhat, being eight points clear of 9th and just two behind 4th) while Blest have a very similar record, sitting 6th in Norway. But the Norwegians have shown an upturn in form recently, and have the slight edge on Hotspurs in terms of player quality and penalty training, so they go in as razor-thin favourites by my book.

 

 


 

GROUPS 3 AND 4

 

Group 3Group 3 looks very open, with a mixture of strong teams (Munchen Carpet, FC Real Manager, FC Mucu Seini) and good managers (DansendHert, Imparaveis, Melissokomoi). The tag of favourite then probably goes to the team with both - Raccoon City Team, who topped a group featuring Vagabonds last season. The simple rating combination above probably underestimates the chances of Munchen Carpet; if their young squad begins to play well together they have the potential to challenge for qualification. A draw between Raccoon City Team and DansendHert in Round 1 isn't fatal for either side, but it allowed FC Real Manager and Imparaveis to move top with victories. Munchen Carpet edged out Greek runners-up Melissokomoi, and followed that up in round 2 with a narrow victory over FC Mucu Seini. Imparaveis joined them at the top with a close victory against Raccoon City Team, while DansendHert also picked up three points but FC Real Manager were held to a draw. Round 3 was a better round for Raccoon City Team, as DansendHert were beaten and Munchen Carpet held to a draw. FC Real Manager beat Imparaveis to move top, before fighting off the challenge of Munchen Carpet in Round 4 - though Imparaveis stayed on their coat-tails after dismantling Melissokomoi. DansendHert won to stay in contention, but a second draw for Raccoon City Team probably leaves them with too much to do in the final three rounds. Rounds 5 and six saw the top two pull away and secure qualification - Imparaveis beat Munchen Carpet and Mucu Seini, while FC Real Manager finished top after victories over DansendHert and Raccoon City Team. QUALIFIED: FC REAL MANAGER, IMPARAVEIS.

Group 4A relatively tough lineup in Group 4, where Kavalacio seem like they're due a good run in this contest, and English champions Beachlife have their eyes on a second title in four seasons. Indonesian Legends have the raw team Q to challenge the top two, and further down MilanAC and Ewing United should be more dangerous opponents than their Q suggests. In the two most telling fixtures from Round 1, Kavalacio and Beachlife laid down markers with impressive wins over Indonesian Legends and MilanAC. In round 2, Kavalacio dismissed the challenge of Dorostol to move top, but Indonesian Legends roared back into contention with a 2-1 win over Beachlife. Round 3 saw Beachlife fall further behind with defeat against Kavalacio, and a surprise win for Toripolliisit against Indonesian Legends. The Finnish side's unexpected run finally came to halt against Beachlife, and defeat to Kavalacio in Round 5 saw them drop back to fourth. Dorostol and Indonesian Legends both won in Round 4, and the Indonesians won their crucial clash in Round 5. With Beachlife unexpectedly dropping points, the race for second opened up for Indonesian Legends. After a straightforward win over ewing united, Indonesian Legends' strong goal difference meant their last round victory over MilanAC was enough to secure qualification - two early goals settling the nerves before eventually running out 5-0 winners. Beachlife leapfrogged Toripolliisit for third, but the Finns deserve credit for an unexpectedly strong challenge. QUALIFIED: KAVALACIO FC, INDONESIAN LEGENDS.

 

Quarter Final Picks:

FC Real Manager take on Indonesian Legends in another tough match to predict. Though Indonesian Legends have the quality edge, the Romanians finished top and unbeaten in what was probably a marginally tougher group, and have the experience of a recent SuperCup victory - all of which would normally make them favourites. However, Andres Iniesta has been ruled out for the Romanians through injury, weakening their midfield, leaving them with only two high-quality substitutes, and probably forcing a switch away from the 4-4-2 formation that served them so well in the Group Stage. This gives Indonesian Legends a golden opportunity to progress, especially if the match goes to extra time.

The deleetcodeion for Group 4 begins with a tip for Kavalacio to go on a run in this contest, and the Greeks duly dominated their group. More surprising was Imparaveis guiding the 5th strongest side in their group to qualification with a game to spare, justifying their stellar manager rating. Although it's dangerous to bet against such an accomplished manager, a 100% group record, a quality advantage of +1.5 and a deep bench is too hard to ignore - Kavalacio are slight favourites here.

 


 

GROUPS 5 AND 6

 

Group 5Though these are two of the weakest groups, they may be among the most interesting this season, since their pairing gives these 16 teams the best chance of a Champions League Quarter Final they are likely to have for some time. In Group 5, the slightly stronger of the two, Sons of Anarchy and Craiova - Maxima field the strongest squads, but Klaebs Kings are a regular in the knockout stages and have the International Manager of the Year guiding them - they won their group with the 7th strongest squad last seaon, so now they have the third strongest the model makes them narrow favourites. Looking beyond the top three, Parma AC may be a decent outside bet. Round 1 saw all the top four win, but in Round 2 Parma AC put the cat among the pigeons with a victory over Klaebs Kings. Sons of Anarchy beat Parma AC in Round 3, while Klaebs Kings and Craiova - Maxima both won as expected. Craiova - Maxima followed that up with a win in Round 4, but all heck broke loose in the remaining games as Klaebs Kings, Sons of Anarchy and Parma AC all tasted unexpected defeat. The carnage obviosuly puts the Americans in control, but left Real Antonico and FC Knudde with manageable schedules, having both already played three of the top four sides. Defeat for both in Round 5 simplified the group however, and after an agonising defeat to Craiova - Maxima, Klaebs Kings challenge ended up on life support, before finally being snuffed out by Sons of Anarchy. In a sign of how tight this group is, Klaebs Kings dropped to 7th, but with a +2 goal difference. Parma AC picked up 9 points in a strong run at the end, but fell short by goal difference to Sons of Anarchy. QUALIFIED: CRAIOVA - MAXIMA, SONS OF ANARCHY.

Group 6Taffelstickers, Ricfig FC and PoolEver all reached the knockout stages last season, with PoolEver going the furthest, to the semi-finals. This year the Norwegians and Portuguese look to have the strongest squads, but they may also face competition from several other teams in the group. Cork Hibernian in particular may be worth keeping an eye on, posting an impressive Manager Rating last season on their way to ousting perennial Irish champions Connemara. Taffelstickers, PoolEver and Cork Hibernian won their opening matches, with SPFC Pachecoorp holding Ricfig to a draw. In the second round, Cork Hibernian and Ricfig were held by the two Brazilian sides, leaving Taffelstickers and PoolEver to move clear at the top of the group. In Round 3 Taffelstickers took control of the group with a 2-0 win over PoolEver; following that with a victory over unbeaten Ricfig should all but secure qualification for the Norwegians. Meanwhile Cork Hibernian kept pace with the leaders with a second victory; but they dropped points again in Round 4 leaving them a tough challenge in their final three matches. Taffelstickers beat Ricfig and PoolEver secured three points against CheatAh in Round 4, then Round 5 victory for the Norwegians against Cork Hibernian and an emphatic PoolEver win over Ricfig FC left the Irish underdogs as the only team who could stop the top two at that point. A win over PoolEver in Round 6 kept them in contention, but the Hungarians did just enough with a victory over Pachecoorp in the last round. Although RicFig were slightly disappointing, the preview above now looks prescient, with dark horses Cork Hibernian almost snatching qualification with a side ranked 62nd of 64 (!!!) in terms of Q. They can now turn their attention to an incredibly tight domestic title defence with their heads held high, while PoolEver and Taffelstickers return to the knockout stages for successive seasons. QUALIFIED: TAFFELSTICKERS, POOLEVER.

 

Quarter Final Picks:

Sitting fifth in an increasingly strong USA league, and with an ageing defence figuring out retirement options, Craiova Maxima could be forgiven for having a now-or-never attitutude to the Champions League, and a strong performance in the group stages suggests they're in with a decent chance. After all, it worked for Chelsea! First they'll take on PoolEver of Hungary, who reached the semi-finals last season. My bet is they'll come up two rounds short this time around, and Craiova Maxima will reach the quarter finals.

Taffelstickers v Sons of Anarchy is very finely poised - the Swedes have the edge in team Q, but Taffelstickers came through their group with more assurance, and look to have a slight edge on teamstats. Taffelstickers top the Norwegian league as of Round 16, which suggests they're getting the best out of a strong team - that makes their manager rating of 10 from last season look like it's underestimating them, so we'll give the edge to Taffelstickers here. But the upsets in this contest usually come at the expense of high-Q Norwegian teams, and group winners - and Taffelstickers are both.

 


 

GROUPS 7 AND 8

 

Group 7. In Groups 7 and 8 we firmly leave the land of opportunity behind and enter the groups of death. Ten of these 16 teams have ratings of 84 or above; twice as many as the other groups have, and (at least) 8 of them will be out by the time the Quarter Finals roll around. In Group 7 a host of strong teams are nearly impossible to pick between - Champion FC have the highest team quality, but the model likes LongѮHổѮPhụng and Los Cruzados based on past performance. KA Barcelona and Czarne Koszule are always in contention, one should never discount the English team - least of all one as strong and experienced as Giarra Djinns - and Bruges Blues overperformed their Q as well as anyone in S112. Bosphorus must be wondering what they did to deserve this draw. Yet in round 1 Bosphorus pulled a hard-fought and unlikely victory out the bag against LongѮHổѮPhụng - in a group this unforgiving that could be a fatal wound for the Vietnamese. Meanwhile Giarra Djinns and KA Barcelona scored important wins against CzarneKoszule and Bruges Blues, while Champion FC made a huge statement by thumping Los Cruzados 4-0. Round 2 emphasised the open nature of this group with draws between Los Cruzados and Giarra Djinns, and LongѮHổѮPhụng and KA Barcelona. CzarneKoszule moved back into contention with a win over Bosphorus, and Champion FC secured the points against Bruges to move top. A Round 3 victory over Giarra Djinns put Champion FC firmly in control, while Los Cruzados picked up three points to stay alive and KA Barcelona won a crucial matchup with CzarneKoszule. A 1-1 draw between Bruges Blues and LongѮHổѮPhụng probably spells the end for both teams. In Round 4 Champion FC extended their lead with a win over LongѮHổѮPhụng but Los Cruzados scored a crucial victory against KA Barcelona to leave the battle for second wide open. Los Cruzados, KA Barcelona, CzarneKoszule and Giarra Djinns were all within a point of eachother with three games to play. Another victory in Round 5 secured impressive qualification for Champion FC, but the melee behind them is still very open after a draw between Giarra Djinns and KA Barcelona. In Round 6 all of the chasing pack scored the victories they needed, so four sides remained in contention going into the final game. CzarneKoszule capped a thrilling comeback in the group after two early defeats to beat Los Cruzados and join their compatriots WKS Slask in reaching the knockout stages. The trophy might yet stay in Poland. QUALIFIED: CHAMPION FC, CZARNEKOSZULE.

Group 8Group 8 is if anything even tougher, with three title contenders in Goals Galore, Brad G Strikers and recent winners Dinamo Zaragoza, joined by last season's finalists Las Leonas, one of the game's top managers in Northcountry Timberwolves, and no obvious weak teams. The model gives the edge to the three strongest teams in terms of Q, though picking two from those three is a fool's errand. In the first round, Brad G Strikers won a terrific US-Canada matchup 5-3, while Dinamo Zaragoza and Goals Galore also posted impressive wins to make us a little more confident in the top-three picks. Round 2 shook things up a bit though, with Brad G Strikers and Goals Galore (living up to their names so far with 12 goals between them) drawing 2-2 and Crvena Zvezda roaring into contention with an impressive win over Dinamo Zaragoza. Las Leonas and Northcountry Timberwolves also stayed in the hunt with victories. In Round 3 Northcountry Timberwolves picked up a valuable point against Goals Galore, while Brad G Strikers moved top after an impressive demolition of last year's finalists. Crvena Zvezda couldn't maintain their momentum, slipping up against Manfredonia, while Dinamo Zaragoza moved up to 6 points. The Spanish champions went one further in Round 4 with a close victory against Northcountry Timberwolves to move second; their slip-up against Crvena Zvezda now seems very long ago. Speaking of the Serbians, their brief challenge has faded, losing 4-1 in Round 4 to Brad G Strikers. "With Goals Galore also winning, it still looks likely that Dinamo Zaragoza v Goals Galore in the final Round will be crucial, but it's getting harder to see a successful challenge from outside the current top 3." And with those words, Belizio proved himself quite the fool ahead of Round 5, where shock wins for Crvena Zvezda and Manfredonia over Goals Galore and Dinamo Zaragoza blew the race for second open enough that even 6th-placed Timberwolves had a potential path out of the group. After Brad G Strikers beat Dinamo Zaragoza in Round 6 to secure top spot, Goals Galore moved up to second place, and eventually qualified with a win over the Spanish side in the last game. This was one of the most exciting and open groups, and I'm a little disappointed to say goodbye to Crvena Zvezda, who capped off an absurdly up-and-down campaign by thumping Northcountry Timberwolves 4-1. QUALIFIED: BRAD G STRIKERS, GOALS GALORE.

 

Quarter Final Picks:

With all the other four Norwegian and American sides topping their groups, this was the only matchup between sides of the two strongest countries before the quarter finals - and Brad G Strikers came out top. CzarneKoszule qualified in thrilling fashion from a very difficult group, but a much more serene progression for Brad G Strikers makes me suspect we'll see a second round-of-16 victory for the USA over Poland.

Finally, Champion FC took their group in style, fulfilling a pre-tournament prediction from Flirtybee that the Australian sides might be dark horses. They'll face Goals Galore, who have been hotly tipped for a couple of seasons, and have already broken the Q98 barrier. Despite the spectacular player quality on show in this tie - the highest of all the Round-of-16 games - both teams have their weaknesses, losing once each and also racking up 3 draws between them. Another tough one to predict, and while it's hard to imagine all of the Norwegian and American sides getting though without at least one upset, it's also tough to tip defeat for the highest Q team in the contest. Goals Galore by a whisker.

 

 

 

- Belizio

 

 

 

  

Click Here to return to the Wonderstar Analytics home page

Share on Facebook
This blogger owns the team The Wonderstars. (TEAM:154471)
Roggbif wrote:
14:04 16/04 2014
picture

 Nice statistics

Just one thing, you have round of 16 before the quarter finals :)

Belizio wrote:
16:08 16/04 2014
picture

Yes, but the groups pair off for the Round of 16, right? So for each pair of groups I'm picking the two teams who I think might get through both the groups then the first knockout round. Should have made that clearer! :-)

 

Belizio wrote:
02:56 11/05 2014
picture

 Just going to leave this here as an illustration of how pointless it is trying to predict knockout results in MLCL :-P

Post a comment
You must be logged in to post comments.
© 2003-2007 Fifth Season AS, Oslo, Norway. Privacy Policy. Rules and Code of Conduct. Sitemap.
Responsible Editor for ManagerLeague is Christian Lassem.